Geodesic
Optimal non-pharmaceutical interventions considering limited healthcare system capacity and economic costs in the Republic of Korea
Yuna Lim1 ; Youngsuk Ko1 ; Victoria May P. Mendoza2 ; Renier Mendoza2 ; Jongmin Lee1 ; Eunok Jung1
1 Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea
2 Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines
Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 19 (2024), article no. 6

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Due to the relatively low severity and fatality rates of the omicron variant of COVID-19, strict non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) with high economic costs may not be necessary. We develop a mathematical model of the COVID-19 outbreak in Korea that considers NPIs, variants, medical capacity, and economic costs. Using optimal control theory, we propose an optimal strategy for the omicron period. To suggest a realistic strategy, we consider limited hospital beds for severe cases and incorporate it as a penalty term in the objective functional using a logistic function. This transforms the constrained problem into an unconstrained one. Given that the solution to the optimal control problem is continuous, we propose the adoption of a sub-optimal control as a more practically implementable alternative. Our study demonstrates how to strategically balance the trade-off between minimizing the economic cost for NPIs and ensuring that the number of severe cases in hospitals is manageable.
DOI : 10.1051/mmnp/2024005

Yuna Lim 1 ; Youngsuk Ko 1 ; Victoria May P. Mendoza 2 ; Renier Mendoza 2 ; Jongmin Lee 1 ; Eunok Jung 1

1 Department of Mathematics, Konkuk University, Seoul 05029, Korea
2 Institute of Mathematics, University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City 1101, Philippines 
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Yuna Lim; Youngsuk Ko; Victoria May P. Mendoza; Renier Mendoza; Jongmin Lee; Eunok Jung. Optimal non-pharmaceutical interventions considering limited healthcare system capacity and economic costs in the Republic of Korea. Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 19 (2024), article  no. 6. doi: 10.1051/mmnp/2024005

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