Geodesic
Numerical assessment of the spread dynamics of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2 using multicompartmental models with distributed parameters
Vestnik rossijskih universitetov. Matematika, Tome 26 (2021) no. 134, pp. 109-120

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We propose multicompartmental models of infectious diseases dynamics for numerical study of the spread parameters of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2, which take into account the delay effects associated with the presence of the latent period of the infection, as well as the possibility of an asymptomatic course of the disease. The dynamics of the spread of COVID-19 in the Russian Federation was investigated, using these models with distributed parameters that formalize the interactions of the models' compartments. The paper provides numerical estimates of the spread dynamics of the new coronavirus infection in various age groups of the population. We also investigate possible consequences of the mask regime and quarantine measures. We obtain an explicit estimate allowing to assess the necessary scope of these measures for the epidemy extinction.
Keywords: compartmental models of epidemics, distributed parameters, numerical solution, COVID-19 modelling. 
@article{VTAMU_2021_26_134_a0,
     author = {E. O. Burlakov and F. B. Kayumov and I. D. Serova},
     title = {Numerical assessment of the spread dynamics of the new coronavirus infection {SARS-CoV-2} using multicompartmental models with distributed parameters},
     journal = {Vestnik rossijskih universitetov. Matematika},
     pages = {109--120},
     publisher = {mathdoc},
     volume = {26},
     number = {134},
     year = {2021},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VTAMU_2021_26_134_a0/}
}
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E. O. Burlakov; F. B. Kayumov; I. D. Serova. Numerical assessment of the spread dynamics of the new coronavirus infection SARS-CoV-2 using multicompartmental models with distributed parameters. Vestnik rossijskih universitetov. Matematika, Tome 26 (2021) no. 134, pp. 109-120. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VTAMU_2021_26_134_a0/