Geodesic
Application of the Mathematical Models Used for Estimating the Impact Probability of Asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5
Journal of Samara State Technical University, Ser. Physical and Mathematical Sciences, no. 4 (2013), pp. 115-121.

Voir la notice de l'article provenant de la source Math-Net.Ru

Methods for estimating the impact probability of asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5 were implemented. The probability of a collision was assessed using two methods: The Monte Carlo method(statistical experiments), and as a ratio between the interval of values of orbital elements, leading to a collision, and the confidence intervals of orbital elements. It was established that the main contribution to the estimation of the impact probability makes a variation in the semimajor axis. The expected date and the estimate of the probability of collisions of asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5 with the Earth were computed.
Mots-clés : 99942 Apophis, orbital elements
Keywords: 2011 AG5, impact probability, The Monte Carlo method. 
@article{VSGTU_2013_4_a10,
     author = {A. E. Derevyanka},
     title = {Application of the {Mathematical} {Models} {Used} for {Estimating} the {Impact} {Probability} of {Asteroids} 99942 {Apophis} and 2011 {AG5}},
     journal = {Journal of Samara State Technical University, Ser. Physical and Mathematical Sciences},
     pages = {115--121},
     publisher = {mathdoc},
     number = {4},
     year = {2013},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VSGTU_2013_4_a10/}
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - A. E. Derevyanka
TI  - Application of the Mathematical Models Used for Estimating the Impact Probability of Asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5
JO  - Journal of Samara State Technical University, Ser. Physical and Mathematical Sciences
PY  - 2013
SP  - 115
EP  - 121
IS  - 4
PB  - mathdoc
UR  - http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VSGTU_2013_4_a10/
LA  - ru
ID  - VSGTU_2013_4_a10
ER  - 
%0 Journal Article
%A A. E. Derevyanka
%T Application of the Mathematical Models Used for Estimating the Impact Probability of Asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5
%J Journal of Samara State Technical University, Ser. Physical and Mathematical Sciences
%D 2013
%P 115-121
%N 4
%I mathdoc
%U http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VSGTU_2013_4_a10/
%G ru
%F VSGTU_2013_4_a10
A. E. Derevyanka. Application of the Mathematical Models Used for Estimating the Impact Probability of Asteroids 99942 Apophis and 2011 AG5. Journal of Samara State Technical University, Ser. Physical and Mathematical Sciences, no. 4 (2013), pp. 115-121. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VSGTU_2013_4_a10/

[1] S. M. Ermakov, The Monte Carlo method and related problems, Nauka, Moscow, 1975, 472 pp. | MR | Zbl

[2] V. A. Brumberg, Relativistic celestial mechanics, Nauka, Moscow, 1972, 382 pp. | MR | Zbl

[3] N. B. Zheleznov, “The influence of the correlations between an asteroid's orbital parameters on the estimation of the probability of planetary collision by the Monte Carlo method”, Solar System Research, 44:2 (2010), 136–143 | DOI

[4] M. Matsumoto, T. Nishimura, “Mersenne twister: A 623-dimensionally equidistributed uniform pseudorandom number generator”, ACM Transactions on Modeling and Computer Simulation (TOMACS), 8:1 (1998), 3–30 | DOI | Zbl

[5] E. Everhart, “Implicit single-sequence methods for integrating orbits”, Celestial mechanics, 10:1 (1974), 35–55 | DOI | MR | Zbl

[6] A. F. Zausaev, A. A. Zausaev, “Employment of the modification Everhart's method for solution of problems of celestial mechanics”, Matem. Mod., 20:11 (2008), 109–114 | Zbl

[7] A. F. Zausaev, A. E. Derevyanka, “Comparative analysis of mathematical models for estimating the impact probability of asteroid Apophis”, Vestn. Samar. Gos. Tekhn. Univ. Ser. Fiz.-Mat. Nauki, 2012, no. 2(27), 192–196 | DOI

[8] J. D. Giorginia, L. A. M. Benner, S. J. Ostro, M. C. Nolan, M. W. Busch, “Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis”, Icarus, 193:1 (2008), 1–19 | DOI

[9] E. A. Smirnov, “The use of interval arithmetic in predicting the orbits of small bodies”, Astronomy and World Heritage across time and continents: Proc. Internat. Conf. Section of Near-Earth Astronomy, Kazan Federal University, Kazan, 2009, 101–102

[10] D. R. Adamo, Earth Risk Corridor Computations for 2011 AG5 on 5 February 2040, 3 March 2012 () http://astrogatorsguild.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/RiskCorr2011-AG5r2.pdf