Evaluation of the effectiveness of earthquake prediction in the Kamchatka region based on the complex of ionospheric anomaliese

V. V. Bogdanov ; A. V. Pavlov

Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiziko-matematičeskie nauki, Tome 41 (2022) no. 4, pp. 167-177

Résumé

There is a direct relationship between solar activity and processes in the magnetosphere, ionosphere and lithosphere of the Earth. However, there is also a feedback that determines the influence of lithospheric processes in seismically active regions on the physical processes occurring in the upper geospheric shells. In seismically active regions, any anomalous changes in the behavior of the ionospheric parameters that form against the background of a regular daily change in the characteristics of the ionosphere due to the influence of the Sun can provide information about the processes of earthquake preparation. At the same time, each seismically active region is characterized by its own most informative features (anomalies) in the behavior of ionospheric parameters, which can be identified with earthquake precursors. The paper considers ionospheric disturbances that were recorded in the course of vertical radio sounding of the ionosphere several days before the onset of earthquakes with magnitude M\geq\ge 6.0 in the Kamchatka region. For these ionospheric disturbances, a statistical analysis of their predictive effectiveness for earthquakes with magnitude M\geq\ge 6.0 was carried out for the period 2013–2021. Variants of complexes of ionospheric parameters with the best predictive efficiency, which can be used to create a technique for short-term prediction of strong earthquakes, are considered. A retrospective analysis of efficiency of the forecast of earthquakes with magnitude M 6:0 based on the considered complexes of ionospheric parameters was carried out.

Détail

Keywords: ionosphere, vertical radio sounding, lithosphere, earthquake, earthquake precursor.