Geodesic
Cenni su teoria ed utilizzo di modelli matematici per le epidemie
Matematica, cultura e società, Série 1, Tome 5 (2020) no. 1, pp. 5-15.

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In questa nota divulgativa presento alcuni aspetti della teoria matematica delle epidemie, con particolare attenzione al caso di una nuova infezione emergente, come nel caso del COVID-19. Parto della definizione di numero di riproduzione di base $R_0$, e presento la sua relazione col tasso di crescita esponenziale all'inizio di un'epidemia e con le possibilità di controllo in semplici modelli deterministici. Discuto poi i corrispondenti modelli stocastici, mostrando come in questo caso $R_0$ sia legato alla probabilità che esploda un'epidemia a partire dall'introduzione di pochi infetti. Infine accenno alla struttura dei modelli complessi che vengono attualmente usati come supporto previsionale alle azioni delle autorità sanitarie.
In this note I present some aspects of the mathematical theory of epidemics, with particular attention to the case of a new emerging infection, as in the case of COVID-19. I start with the definition of basic reproduction number $R_0$, and present its relationship with the exponential growth rate at the beginning of an epidemic and with potential for control in simple deterministic models. I then discuss the corresponding stochastic models, showing that in this case the probability that the introduction of a few infected individduals results into an epidemic outbreak depends on the value of $R_0$. Finally, I will mention the structure of complex models that are currently used as support for the actions of the health authorities. 
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Pugliese, Andrea. Cenni su teoria ed utilizzo di modelli matematici per le epidemie. Matematica, cultura e società, Série 1, Tome 5 (2020) no. 1, pp. 5-15. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/RUMI_2020_1_5_1_a1/

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