Geodesic
Threshold theorem for an~epidemic model
Matematičeskie zametki, Tome 3 (1968) no. 2, pp. 179-185

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The article discusses a probability model of the spread of an epidemic in which the elimination of sick persons (through death, immunity, or isolation) is taken into account. The authors find a limit distribution for the magnitude of the epidemic, $\nu$, on the assumption that $n\to\infty$, where n is the original number of susceptible persons, and $\frac{\mu}{\lambda n}\to 1$, where $\lambda$ and $\mu$ are the coefficient of infection and the coefficient of elimination, respectively. 
@article{MZM_1968_3_2_a7,
     author = {A. V. Nagaev and A. V. Startsev},
     title = {Threshold theorem for an~epidemic model},
     journal = {Matemati\v{c}eskie zametki},
     pages = {179--185},
     publisher = {mathdoc},
     volume = {3},
     number = {2},
     year = {1968},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MZM_1968_3_2_a7/}
}
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A. V. Nagaev; A. V. Startsev. Threshold theorem for an~epidemic model. Matematičeskie zametki, Tome 3 (1968) no. 2, pp. 179-185. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MZM_1968_3_2_a7/