Geodesic
Mathematical model of spread of HIV-infection in population with dynamic risk of infection
Matematičeskoe modelirovanie, Tome 25 (2013) no. 1, pp. 45-64.

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The purpose of the research is development of methods of effectiveness assessment for the HIV-infection control in Russia. Existing approaches to modeling the spread of HIV were based on the assumption that individual risk of infection is constant. In this paper we propose a model of the virus spread in a population with a dynamic risk. The dynamics of risk described by models of formation of alcohol and drug abuse — the main factors of HIV spread in Russia. The paper discusses the main findings include: statistical data analysis, model the dynamics of HIV risk and the problem of identifying model parameters according to the regions of Russia.
Keywords: mathematical model, HIV epidemiology, dynamic risk. 
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E. A. Nosova; A. A. Romanyukha. Mathematical model of spread of HIV-infection in population with dynamic risk of infection. Matematičeskoe modelirovanie, Tome 25 (2013) no. 1, pp. 45-64. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MM_2013_25_1_a3/

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