Geodesic
Population forecasting and dynamic games against nature
Matematičeskaâ teoriâ igr i eë priloženiâ, Tome 16 (2024) no. 1, pp. 44-60

Voir la notice de l'article provenant de la source Math-Net.Ru

The paper proposes a new approach to building forecasts of population dynamics using the example of countries in the West African region. Population dynamics are described using discrete equations with variable parameters of a stochastic nature and under the assumption that there are no probability distributions of the values of these parameters. The forecasting process is modeled by a dynamic game against nature. Test examples of the application of the developed forecasting methods in the study of statistics of past periods and the results of retrospective analysis are given. Forecasts of population dynamics after 2020 were constructed for Senegal and Mali.
Keywords: dynamic games against nature, demography, population forecasting, percentage growth, uncertainty, principle of dynamic balance. 
@article{MGTA_2024_16_1_a2,
     author = {Victor V. Zakharov and Serigne Modou Ndiaye},
     title = {Population forecasting and dynamic games against nature},
     journal = {Matemati\v{c}eska\^a teori\^a igr i e\"e prilo\v{z}eni\^a},
     pages = {44--60},
     publisher = {mathdoc},
     volume = {16},
     number = {1},
     year = {2024},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MGTA_2024_16_1_a2/}
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - Victor V. Zakharov
AU  - Serigne Modou Ndiaye
TI  - Population forecasting and dynamic games against nature
JO  - Matematičeskaâ teoriâ igr i eë priloženiâ
PY  - 2024
SP  - 44
EP  - 60
VL  - 16
IS  - 1
PB  - mathdoc
UR  - http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MGTA_2024_16_1_a2/
LA  - ru
ID  - MGTA_2024_16_1_a2
ER  - 
%0 Journal Article
%A Victor V. Zakharov
%A Serigne Modou Ndiaye
%T Population forecasting and dynamic games against nature
%J Matematičeskaâ teoriâ igr i eë priloženiâ
%D 2024
%P 44-60
%V 16
%N 1
%I mathdoc
%U http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MGTA_2024_16_1_a2/
%G ru
%F MGTA_2024_16_1_a2
Victor V. Zakharov; Serigne Modou Ndiaye. Population forecasting and dynamic games against nature. Matematičeskaâ teoriâ igr i eë priloženiâ, Tome 16 (2024) no. 1, pp. 44-60. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MGTA_2024_16_1_a2/