Geodesic
Predictive trajectories of economic development under structural changes
Matematičeskaâ teoriâ igr i eë priloženiâ, Tome 8 (2016) no. 3, pp. 34-66.

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The paper is devoted to the investigation of one-sector economic growth models and corresponding optimal control problems on distribution of investment flows. The paper deals with two type of production functions: the exponential (Cobb–Douglas) function and the linear function which takes into account possible structural changes in statistical data of main economical factors. Dummy variables allow to determine periods when the original model is applicable, and to evaluate model parameters describing economic situations both before and after structural changes. The paper provides the qualitative analysis of solutions of control problems for each model and make a comparison of optimal model scenarios, including trajectories obtained by continuous sewing of solutions constructed on different time intervals, with real statistical trends. The proposed approach of adaptation of model parameters to new conditions can be treated as the learning ability of the general model. It makes the model more flexible with respect to qualitative changes influencing on predictive trajectories of economic development.
Keywords: econometric data analysis, dummy variables, optimal control, economic growth. 
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Alexandr M. Tarasyev; Anastasiya A. Usova; Yuliya V. Shmotina. Predictive trajectories of economic development under structural changes. Matematičeskaâ teoriâ igr i eë priloženiâ, Tome 8 (2016) no. 3, pp. 34-66. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MGTA_2016_8_3_a2/

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