The integration of simulation models for complex evaluation of different forest ecosystem services: methodological approaches

P. Ya. Grabarnik ; O. G. Chertov ; S. I. Chumachenko ; V. N. Shanin ; L. G. Khanina ; M. V. Bobrovsky ; S. S. Bykhovets ; P. V. Frolov

Matematičeskaâ biologiâ i bioinformatika, Tome 14 (2019) no. 2, pp. 488-499.

Résumé

To solve the problems of modeling complex ecological, socio-ecological and economic systems, a large number of computer models have been developed, from the simplest ones, which only roughly described the system under investigation, to fairly detailed ones, which allow for studying the behavior of a great number of interacting elements simultaneously. The development of views on the structure and patterns of ecosystem functioning, the improvement of computer technology, programming technologies, and the advanced mathematical theories create the background for a new stage in the development of the modeling in ecology. If earlier mathematical models, being very generalized, were created by individual scientists or small research groups, at present the development of complex models is impossible without utilizing the experience of many research teams using a diverse arsenal of methods and knowledge accumulated in forest science, ecology, plant physiology, soil science, climatology, and other sciences. As a part of the task of integrating several environmental models, a software and hardware solution was developed based on a special data exchange protocol, and methodological foundations were developed for the model integration. A system based on the dynamic FORRUS-S forest stand model, the Romul-Hum soil organic matter dynamics model, the SCLISS soil climate statistical generator, and the BioCalc biodiversity estimation for integrated assessment of the trade-offs and synergies dynamics at different forest management scenarios has been created. Using this system of models, a prediction of timber production, carbon accumulation in soil organic matter, and biodiversity dynamics was made for large forest area.

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