Application of Monte-Carlo method for predicting permissible loads of air pollutants on forest ecosystems

I. V. Priputina ; I. Yu. Averkieva ; A. V. Tankanag

Matematičeskaâ biologiâ i bioinformatika, Tome 7 (2012) no. 1, pp. 322-333.

Résumé

. The article presents the results of calculating critical loads of air pollutants (NOx) for forest ecosystems in Moscow region, Russia. High level nitrogen depositions dealt with NOx emission from local factories and vehicles is known to lead both to acidification and N-effects as eutrophication in natural ecosystems that can be a cause of their degradation or biodiversity losses. Predicting permissible levels of nitrogen depositions so-called critical loads protected ecosystems from negative ecological changes was carried out using steady state mass balance model for 10 forest groups representative for Moscow region. Accounts were realized by stochastic simulation from 10000 replications on the base of Monte Carlo method. This approach allowed to determine for each simulated forest group a row of critical load values which was a representation of spatial and long-term combinations of forest ecotope natural conditions influencing on biogeochemical nitrogen mass balance. The results obtained can be helpful for decision-making in wild-life conservation.

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