Modeling the dynamics of population, evaluation and comparative analysis of the demographic parameters of moose in the Russia and Finland using long-term monitoring data

V. G. Petrosyan ; N. N. Dergunova ; S. A. Bessonov ; A. V. Omelchenko

Matematičeskaâ biologiâ i bioinformatika, Tome 7 (2012) no. 1, pp. 244-256.

Résumé

Three classes of models for assessing the population dynamics and demographic parameters of moose (Alses alses L.) are presented. Comparative analysis of population dynamics of moose in Russia (1961–2007 years) and Finland (1975–2006 years), sex and age structure and density of animals showed that the current low levels of moose population in Russia is mainly related to the influence of natural and anthropogenic (poaching) factors. The results of classical models of population dynamics and time series analysis showed that there were not significant positive trends of increasing the number of animals at both the federal and the regional levels. The model of the decomposition of the trend, periodic and random components of the population dynamics of species is presented. The model evaluations estimates of reproductive potential, annual reproduction and the greatest possible number of populations were presented using modified discrete models of Malthus, Beaverton–Holt and Ricker.

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