Geodesic
A model for forecasting characteristics of floods affecting the value of the caused damage
Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, Tome 17 (2017) no. 2, pp. 231-238 
M. V. Khamutova; V. A. Kushnikov. A model for forecasting characteristics of floods affecting the value of the caused damage. Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, Tome 17 (2017) no. 2, pp. 231-238. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/ISU_2017_17_2_a9/
@article{ISU_2017_17_2_a9,
     author = {M. V. Khamutova and V. A. Kushnikov},
     title = {A model for forecasting characteristics of floods affecting the value of the caused damage},
     journal = {Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics},
     pages = {231--238},
     year = {2017},
     volume = {17},
     number = {2},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/ISU_2017_17_2_a9/}
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - M. V. Khamutova
AU  - V. A. Kushnikov
TI  - A model for forecasting characteristics of floods affecting the value of the caused damage
JO  - Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics
PY  - 2017
SP  - 231
EP  - 238
VL  - 17
IS  - 2
UR  - http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/ISU_2017_17_2_a9/
LA  - ru
ID  - ISU_2017_17_2_a9
ER  - 
%0 Journal Article
%A M. V. Khamutova
%A V. A. Kushnikov
%T A model for forecasting characteristics of floods affecting the value of the caused damage
%J Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics
%D 2017
%P 231-238
%V 17
%N 2
%U http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/ISU_2017_17_2_a9/
%G ru
%F ISU_2017_17_2_a9

Voir la notice de l'article provenant de la source Math-Net.Ru

According to GOST (State Standard) characteristics of floods are selected that have influence on the extent of damage. Forecasting of such characteristics will improve the efficiency of liquidation of floods effects. On the basis of formal apparatus of system dynamics that takes into account the casual relationships between modeled variables a mathematical model is developed to forecast characteristics of floods. A graph of cause-effect relations that exist between modeled characteristics is constructed. The mathematical model is described by a system of first order nonlinear differential equations. The numerical solution of the system was obtained with the aid of Runge–Kutta method. Computational experiments were conducted that allowed to determine the modeled characteristics for different time intervals. Comparison of the characteristics calculated according to the model with their real values during the Primorski Krai's flood in August 2001 confirms the adequacy of the mathematical model. The results obtained can be used in the development of information systems of forecasting the flood effects for operative and dispatching personnel of the EMERCOM.

[1] Avakjan A. B., “Floods. The concept of protection”, Izvestiya RAS. Ser. Geographic, 2000, no. 5, 40–46 (in Russian)

[2] Voronin A., Vasilchenko A., Chrapov S., Agafonnikova E., “Efficiency analysis for nature restoration projects in ecologo-economic system of Volga HPP and Volga-Akhtuba Floodplain”, Large-scale Systems Control, 52 (2014), 133–147 (in Russian)

[3] Sadovnichiy V. A., Akayev A. A., Korotayev A. V., Malkov S. Yu., Modelling and Forecasting World Dynamics, Scientific Council for “Economics and Sociology of Knowledge” Fundamental Research Program, RAS ISPR, M., 2012, 360 pp.

[4] Brodskij Ju. I., Lectures on mathematical and simulation modeling, Direkt-Media, M.–Berlin, 2015, 240 pp. (in Russian)

[5] Belotelov N. V., Brodskij Ju. I., Pavlovskij Ju. N., Complexity. Mathematical modeling. Humanitarian analysis: the Study of the historical, military, socio-economic and political processes, LIBROKOM Publ., M., 2009, 320 pp. (in Russian)

[6] Fedianin V. I., Proskurnikov Yu. E., Organization and implementation of rescue and other emergency operations when liquidating the emergent situations of natural origin, v. 1, Voronezh Techn. Univ. Press, Voronezh, 2006, 469 pp. (in Russian)

[7] Temporary methods of assessment of damage, possible due to an accident waterworks, RD 153-34.2-002-01, the Order of the Ministry of Energy of Russia No 130, 26, April, 2001 (in Russian) (accessed 01, February, 2017)

[8] Khamutova M. V., Kushnikov V. A., “Mathematical model for forecasting of flood effects”, Vestnik Astrakhan State Technical Univ. Ser. Management, Computer Sciences and Informatics, 2016, no. 3, 109–114 (in Russian)

[9] Klyuev V. V., Rezchikov A. F., Kushnikov V. A., Bogomolov A. S., Ivashchenko V. A., Filimonyuk L. Yu., Khamutova M. V., “Informational-control system for decision-making supply during elimination of floods' consequences”, Herald of computer and information technologies, 2016, no. 11(149), 39–45 (in Russian) | DOI