Plausible inferences and plausible reasoning
Itogi nauki i tehniki. Seriâ, Teoriâ veroâtnostej. Matematičeskaâ statistika. Teoretičeskaâ kibernetika, Itogi Nauki i Tekhniki. Seriya "Teoriya Veroyatnostei. Matematicheskaya Statistika. Teoreticheskaya Kibernetika", Tome 28 (1988), pp. 3-84
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The paper focuses on the central aspect of any “intelligentlike” system: formal models of reasoning (plausible reasoning and plausible inference) and methods of mechanized implementation of these models in computer systems. A classification of inference types is presented and the historical development of the relevant theories is briefly reviewed. The so-called JSM method (for John Stuart Mill) of mechanized hypothesis generation is described in detail. This method is used in the “plausible inference + reliable inference” solver in logical information-computing systems.