Structural and dynamic simulation of the interaction between the components of aquatic ecosystems under anthropogenic impact

A. Yu. Perevaryukha

Izvestiya Instituta Matematiki i Informatiki Udmurtskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta, Tome 46 (2015) no. 2, pp. 132-139

Résumé

The development of truly actual computational models in ecology requires attention to key aspects of the interaction among a very large number of other background factors. This paper presents forming of the graph model to analyze of intervention scenarios in the functioning of ecosystems using a pulsed process that starts from the special control vertices. The structural graph includes a complex of biotic and anthropogenic factors affecting on the stability of the replenishment of sturgeon stocks in the Caspian Sea. Orientation of pulse propagation represents causal nature of mutual influence, which manifests itself under change of state of one of the components of the ecosystem. We studied the contours of feedbacks, which were not earlier taken into account in coordination of fisheries forecasts and were reflected in the rapid depletion of the biological resources. It was revealed a contour of chain of factors that weaken the effectiveness of fish breeding. Such implicit chain leads to an overestimation of reproductive potential. We discuss the boundedness of interpreting the traditional for ichthyology discrete dynamical systems with the possibility of the appearance of chaos scenario applied to the problems of biological resource management as an important reason for the development of an alternative type of population models.

Détail

Keywords: models of the dynamics of commercial populations, graph cognitive model, pulsed processes, feedbacks in ecosystems, interpretation of the computational results.