Geodesic
Transition phenomena in mathematical theory of epidemic
Dalʹnevostočnyj matematičeskij žurnal, Tome 2 (2001) no. 1, pp. 58-67.

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A generalization of the threshold Whittle's theorem of mathematical epidemic theory is made for a case when a number of susceptibles infected by an end of an epidemic is near its extremal values. It allows to give qualitative long-term prognosis of epidemic's damage. An algorythm of fast and precise calculation of a distribution of epidemic's damage for small meanings which correspond to short-term prognosis is constructed. 
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G. Sh. Tsitsiashvili; M. A. Osipova. Transition phenomena in mathematical theory of epidemic. Dalʹnevostočnyj matematičeskij žurnal, Tome 2 (2001) no. 1, pp. 58-67. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/DVMG_2001_2_1_a4/

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