Geodesic
Modeling of the process of technological breakdown
Mathematica Applicanda, Tome 48 (2020) no. 2, pp. 173-189.

Voir la notice de l'article provenant de la source Annales Societatis Mathematicae Polonae Series

Based on historical data gathered in one of the wind farms, a mathematical model was created to predict the relationship between wind speeds and the amount of energy obtained. The theory of Hidden Markov Models, which were used in the study of the wind farm production process found an application to carry out a detailed analysis. Simulations (implemented in Python language of programming) of forward-backward procedure, Viterbi algorithm and Baum-Welch algorithm allowed us to answer a few key questions about the probability of obtaining a satisfactory sequence of observations emitted during the operation of the turbine. The whole has translated into the possibility of determining the availability coefficient of the wind farm system, which gives full information about the efficiency of the technological process. This factor can be used to prevent the occurrence of a process failure, and thus to efficiently improve its operation.
DOI : 10.14708/ma.v48i2.7070
Classification : 62P30, Secondary: 60K10, 60J20
Mots-clés : Hidden Markov Model, Viterbi algorithm, Baum-Welch algorithm, wind farm reliability 
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Marek Skarupski; Radosław Markulak. Modeling of the process of technological breakdown. Mathematica Applicanda, Tome 48 (2020) no. 2, pp.  173-189. doi : 10.14708/ma.v48i2.7070. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.14708/ma.v48i2.7070/

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