Geodesic
Modeling environmental impacts of plankton reservoirs on cholera population dynamics
Christian Paroissin1 ; Bernard Cazelles2 ; Michel de Lara3 ; Jean-François Delmas3 ; Jean-François Guégan4
1 MODAL'X, UFR SEGMI, Université Paris X Nanterre, 200 avenue de la République, 92001 Nanterre Cedex, France;
2 UMR CNRS 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, 75230 Paris Cedex, France;
3 ENPC-CERMICS, 6 avenue Blaise Pascal, Champs-sur-Marne, 77455 Marne-la-Vallée Cedex, France;
4 Génétique et Évolution des Maladies Infectieuses, UMR CNRS/IRD 2724, IRD, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France;
ESAIM. Proceedings, Tome 14 (2005), pp. 156-173.

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Cholera remains a major public health problem with significant mortality, and numerous re-emergences have been observed in the last decade in many developing countries. Previous analyses have suggested a complex process for cholera disease emergence and spread, particularly related to environmental factors associated to aquatic habitats. To disentangle the complexity of these ecological and epidemiological processes and to understand the dynamics of cholera epidemics, mathematical models are needed. Here we review the state-of-the-art of cholera models before proposing a modified model that integrates some influential environmental drivers. Particularly, as statistical analyses have revealed that chlorophyll a concentration had a significant influence over cholera epidemics our model incorporates this association, we suggest a new model where the disease starts with a bloom of phytoplankton, and then spreads in human community.
DOI : 10.1051/proc:2005013

Christian Paroissin 1 ; Bernard Cazelles 2 ; Michel de Lara 3 ; Jean-François Delmas 3 ; Jean-François Guégan 4

1 MODAL'X, UFR SEGMI, Université Paris X Nanterre, 200 avenue de la République, 92001 Nanterre Cedex, France;
2 UMR CNRS 7625, Ecole Normale Supérieure, 46 rue d'Ulm, 75230 Paris Cedex, France;
3 ENPC-CERMICS, 6 avenue Blaise Pascal, Champs-sur-Marne, 77455 Marne-la-Vallée Cedex, France;
4 Génétique et Évolution des Maladies Infectieuses, UMR CNRS/IRD 2724, IRD, BP 64501, 34394 Montpellier Cedex 5, France; 
@article{EP_2005_14_a12,
     author = {Christian Paroissin and Bernard Cazelles and Michel de Lara and Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Delmas and Jean-Fran\c{c}ois Gu\'egan},
     title = {Modeling environmental impacts of plankton reservoirs on cholera population dynamics},
     journal = {ESAIM. Proceedings},
     pages = {156--173},
     publisher = {mathdoc},
     volume = {14},
     year = {2005},
     doi = {10.1051/proc:2005013},
     language = {en},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.1051/proc:2005013/}
}
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Christian Paroissin; Bernard Cazelles; Michel de Lara; Jean-François Delmas; Jean-François Guégan. Modeling environmental impacts of plankton reservoirs on cholera population dynamics. ESAIM. Proceedings, Tome 14 (2005), pp. 156-173. doi : 10.1051/proc:2005013. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.1051/proc:2005013/

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