Geodesic
Immuno-Epidemiological Model-Based Prediction of Further Covid-19 Epidemic Outbreaks Due to Immunity Waning
Samiran Ghosh1 ; Malay Banerjee1 ; Vitaly Volpert2, 3
1 Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016, India
2 Institut Camille Jordan, UMR 5208 CNRS, University Lyon 1, 69622 Villeurbanne, France
3 Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow 117198, Russian Federation
Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 17 (2022), article no. 9.

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We develop a new data-driven immuno-epidemiological model with distributed infectivity, recovery and death rates determined from the epidemiological, clinical and experimental data. Immunity in the population is taken into account through the time-dependent number of vaccinated people with different numbers of doses and through the acquired immunity for recovered individuals. The model is validated with the available data. We show that for the first time from the beginning of pandemic COVID-19 some countries reached collective immunity. However, the epidemic continues because of the emergence of new variant BA.2 with a larger immunity escape or disease transmission rate than the previous BA.l variant. Large epidemic outbreaks can be expected several months later due to immunity waning. These outbreaks can be restrained by an intensive booster vaccination.
DOI : 10.1051/mmnp/2022017

Samiran Ghosh 1 ; Malay Banerjee 1 ; Vitaly Volpert 2, 3

1 Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur, Kanpur 208016, India
2 Institut Camille Jordan, UMR 5208 CNRS, University Lyon 1, 69622 Villeurbanne, France
3 Peoples Friendship University of Russia (RUDN University), 6 Miklukho-Maklaya St, Moscow 117198, Russian Federation 
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Samiran Ghosh; Malay Banerjee; Vitaly Volpert. Immuno-Epidemiological Model-Based Prediction of Further Covid-19 Epidemic Outbreaks Due to Immunity Waning. Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 17 (2022), article  no. 9. doi : 10.1051/mmnp/2022017. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.1051/mmnp/2022017/

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