Geodesic
Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1)
G. F. Webb1 ; Y-H. Hsieh2 ; J. Wu3 ; M. J. Blaser4
1 Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, 37240 USA
2 Department of Public Health and Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
3 Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Centre for Disease Modeling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada M3J 1P3
4 Department of Medicine and Department of Microbiology, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016, USA
Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 5 (2010) no. 3, pp. 191-205

Voir la notice de l'article provenant de la source EDP Sciences

Early studies of the novel swine-origin 2009 influenza A (H1N1) epidemic indicate clinical attack rates in children much higher than in adults. Non-medical interventions such as school closings are constrained by their large socio-economic costs. Here we develop a mathematical model to ascertain the roles of pre-symptomatic influenza transmission as well as symptoms surveillance of children to assess the utility of school closures. Our model analysis indicates that school closings are advisable when pre-symptomatic transmission is significant or when removal of symptomatic children is inefficient. Our objective is to provide a rational basis for school closings decisions dependent on virulence characteristics and local surveillance implementation, applicable to the current epidemic and future epidemics.
DOI : 10.1051/mmnp/20105312

G. F. Webb 1 ; Y-H. Hsieh 2 ; J. Wu 3 ; M. J. Blaser 4

1 Department of Mathematics, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee, 37240 USA
2 Department of Public Health and Center for Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
3 Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Centre for Disease Modeling, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, York University, Toronto, Canada M3J 1P3
4 Department of Medicine and Department of Microbiology, New York University School of Medicine, New York, NY 10016, USA 
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G. F. Webb; Y-H. Hsieh; J. Wu; M. J. Blaser. Pre-symptomatic Influenza Transmission, Surveillance, and School Closings: Implications for Novel Influenza A (H1N1). Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 5 (2010) no. 3, pp. 191-205. doi: 10.1051/mmnp/20105312

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