Some variations on the extremal index

G. Buriticá ; N. Meyer ; T. Mikosch ; O. Wintenberger

Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov POMI, Probability and statistics. Part 30, Tome 501 (2021), pp. 52-77

Résumé

We re-consider Leadbetter's extremal index for stationary sequences. It has interpretation as reciprocal of the expected size of an extremal cluster above high thresholds. We focus on heavytailed time series, in particular on regularly varying stationary sequences, and discuss recent research in extreme value theory for these models. A regularly varying time series has multivariate regularly varying finite-dimensional distributions. Thanks to results by Basrak and Segers [2] we have explicit representations of the limiting cluster structure of extremes, leading to explicit expressions of the limiting point process of exceedances and the extremal index as a summary measure of extremal clustering. The extremal index appears in various situations which do not seem to be directly related, like the convergence of maxima and point processes. We consider different representations of the extremal index which arise from the considered context. We discuss the theory and apply it to a regularly varying AR(1) process and the solution to an affine stochastic recurrence equation.