Geodesic
Preliminary assessment of hydrothermal risks in the Euphrates--Tigris basin: droughts in Iraq
Vestnik Ûžno-Uralʹskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriâ Vyčislitelʹnaâ matematika i informatika, Tome 7 (2018) no. 4, pp. 41-58

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This paper presents a temporal and spatial pattern of precipitation, surface air temperature, and drought occurrence in Euphrates-Tigris rivers basin with special emphases on Iraq. Historical records based on 115 years (1900–2014) of monthly precipitation and temperature data has been divided into four sub-periods, each of 30 years (first 1900–1929, second 1930–1959, third 1960-1989 and fourth 1985–2014) and studied separately. The results showed that the mean annual precipitation in Iraq for the four sub-periods is: 218.5, 202.1, 196.4, and 174.9 mm respectively, with an average of 198 mm. This indicates that the mean annual precipitation decreased by 43.6 mm (20 %) in the fourth sub-period compared to the first sub-period. The mean annual temperature for the four sub-periods in Iraq are 22.0, 21.9, 22.0, 22.8 °C respectively, with an average of 22.2 °C. This indicates that the average monthly temperature during the year in Iraq increased by 0.76 °C (3.45 %) in the fourth sub-period compared to the first sub-period. The probability of occurrence of dry (hot) periods in Iraq increased by 345.5 % (147.7 %) in the fourth sub-period compared to the first sub-period. Fortunately, the greatest drought occurrence is observed in western parts of Ira, where agriculture is irrigated, in rain-fed areas in the northern Iraq, there has also been a decrease in precipitation, but not so strong as in the west of the country. A preliminary conclusion about the current climatic desertification and its possible consequences for Iraq was drawn.
Keywords: Euphrates–Tigris rivers basin, temperature, precipitation, climate change, Standardized Precipitation Index, z-score.
Mots-clés : Iraq 
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     author = {A. S. Alhumaima and S. M. Abdullaev},
     title = {Preliminary assessment of hydrothermal risks in the {Euphrates--Tigris} basin: droughts in {Iraq}},
     journal = {Vestnik \^U\v{z}no-Uralʹskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seri\^a Vy\v{c}islitelʹna\^a matematika i informatika},
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A. S. Alhumaima; S. M. Abdullaev. Preliminary assessment of hydrothermal risks in the Euphrates--Tigris basin: droughts in Iraq. Vestnik Ûžno-Uralʹskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriâ Vyčislitelʹnaâ matematika i informatika, Tome 7 (2018) no. 4, pp. 41-58. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VYURV_2018_7_4_a2/