Mathematical modelling of industrial equipment operation based on Markov processes

V. G. Mokhov ; G. S. Chebotareva

Vestnik Ûžno-Uralʹskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriâ, Matematičeskoe modelirovanie i programmirovanie, Tome 14 (2021) no. 2, pp. 94-99

Résumé

The existence of an almost unlimited number of methods for evaluating the productivity of industrial equipment contributes to the uncertainty of choosing the most effective approach. At the same time, the presence of many possible states of equipment (from working to repair and other downtime) complicates the problem of modelling the operation of such a system. The problem of modelling does not lose its relevance, first of all, for large industrial companies. The article presents the methodological features of modelling the operation of industrial equipment based on the Markov method. This approach is used as a base for estimating the probabilities of equipment transitions between states, as well as for predicting the final state of operation of such a system. In terms of practical application, we consider an example of the functioning of the same type of industrial equipment in the framework of three possible states (functional, broken, and also in the mode of forced repair). Based on the results of calculations, we carry out assessment of the reality of the state transitions of equipment, designed rate of these transitions, as well as the predicted level of productivity equipment system after the period "$t$". The reliability of the research results is confirmed by their practical implementation. The obtained results are recommended to be used by the management and analysts of industrial companies in the process of making operational decisions and in the development of equipment repair strategies.

Détail

Keywords: Markov method, mathematical modelling, theory of probability, prediction, industrial equipment, equipment states, states transitions.