Geodesic
Building a modification of the SEIRD model of epidemic spread that takes into account the features of COVID-19
Vestnik Tverskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriâ Prikladnaâ matematika, no. 4 (2020), pp. 14-27 Cet article a éte moissonné depuis la source Math-Net.Ru

Voir la notice de l'article

The article is devoted to the construction of a mathematical model that takes into account some features of COVID-19 propagation. The presented model is based on the classic SEIRD epidemic distribution model. The created model, in contrast to the basic one, takes into account the fact that latent COVIND-19 carriers are somewhat contagious and that in a significant number of infected people, the disease is asymptomatic. The SEIIRDm model reflects the fact that identified patients are isolating (hospitalizing) and the probability of infection from them decreases sharply and also that the measures taken over the quarantine are massive moreover, both the degree of their rigidity and the moment of introduction are important. Besides, the article draws attention to the fact that the relationship between the rate of change in the relative number of cases and susceptible and the relative number of infected may be nonlinear, and this fact is reflected in the built model. The article provides examples of numerical forecasting of the development of the epidemiological process as well as modeling the impact of mass quarantine measures, calculated on the basis of the created mathematical model.
Keywords: mathematical model, spread of the epidemic, COVID-19, differential equations. 
@article{VTPMK_2020_4_a1,
     author = {N. I. Eremeeva},
     title = {Building a modification of the {SEIRD} model of epidemic spread that takes into account the features of {COVID-19}},
     journal = {Vestnik Tverskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seri\^a Prikladna\^a matematika},
     pages = {14--27},
     year = {2020},
     number = {4},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VTPMK_2020_4_a1/}
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - N. I. Eremeeva
TI  - Building a modification of the SEIRD model of epidemic spread that takes into account the features of COVID-19
JO  - Vestnik Tverskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriâ Prikladnaâ matematika
PY  - 2020
SP  - 14
EP  - 27
IS  - 4
UR  - http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VTPMK_2020_4_a1/
LA  - ru
ID  - VTPMK_2020_4_a1
ER  - 
%0 Journal Article
%A N. I. Eremeeva
%T Building a modification of the SEIRD model of epidemic spread that takes into account the features of COVID-19
%J Vestnik Tverskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriâ Prikladnaâ matematika
%D 2020
%P 14-27
%N 4
%U http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VTPMK_2020_4_a1/
%G ru
%F VTPMK_2020_4_a1
N. I. Eremeeva. Building a modification of the SEIRD model of epidemic spread that takes into account the features of COVID-19. Vestnik Tverskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta. Seriâ Prikladnaâ matematika, no. 4 (2020), pp. 14-27. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VTPMK_2020_4_a1/

[1] Hammer W. H., “Epidemic disease in England - the evidence of variability and of persistence of type”, The Lancet, 1 (1906), 733–739

[2] Kermack W. O., McKendrick A. G., “A Contribution to the Mathematical Theory of Epidemics”, Proceedings of the Royal Society, 115:772 (1927), 700–721 | Zbl

[3] McKendrick A. G., “Applications of Mathematics to Medical Problems”, Proceedings of Edinburgh Mathematical Society, 44 (1926), 98–130 | DOI

[4] Edelstein-Keshet L., Mathematical Models in Biology, Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 2005, 586 pp. | MR | Zbl

[5] Herbert W., Hethcote H. W., “The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases”, SIAM Review, 42:4 (2000), 599–653 | DOI | MR | Zbl

[6] Hethcote H. W., “The Mathematics of Infectious Diseases”, SIAM Review, 42:4 (2000), 599–653 | DOI | MR | Zbl