Approach to the problem of strategic management of the regional development based on adaptive simulation model

A. R. Bakhtizin ; M. M. Nizamutdinov ; V. V. Oreshnikov

Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Prikladnaâ matematika, informatika, processy upravleniâ, Tome 15 (2019) no. 3, pp. 362-374

Résumé

Nowadays, one of the most urgent tasks facing the state authorities in the Russian Federation is to manage the comprehensive development of the regions. The complexity of this subject to management, multidimensionality of existing problems and the inconsistency of the targets in conjunction with the dynamically changing operating conditions require the use of modern methods and tools to forecasting of changes in the key parameters of regional development. The article describes approach to the formation of an adaptive simulation model of regional socio-economic system. This model allows to take into account the behaviour of economic agents in their interaction with each other and the environment. The conceptual scheme of this model is presented. The basic elements of model, including blocks of adaptive behaviour of agents, use of resources and maintenance of balances are revealed. The control subsystem including the goal setting and control blocks is allocated separately. A set of rules governing the activation of a particular block of the model is justified. To implement this task, the adjustment mechanism of the indicative plan is formalized based on fuzzy logic methods. The knowledge base of fuzzy rules for the formation of target indicators for management of the regional system development is developed. At the end of the article the scheme of implementation of information support of regional development management based on the proposed adaptive simulation model of the region is described. In our opinion, the proposed tools which combines the methods of management theory and economic and mathematical methods will improve the efficiency of regional development strategies.

Détail

Keywords: strategy of socio-economic development, simulation modelling, regional system, fuzzy logic, target indicators, management, decision support system.
Mots-clés : adaptation

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