Tunisia 2011–2014. Bifurcation, revolution, and controlled stabilization

G. A. Leonov ; N. Kuznetsov ; E. V. Kudryashova

Vestnik Sankt-Peterburgskogo universiteta. Prikladnaâ matematika, informatika, processy upravleniâ, no. 4 (2016), pp. 92-103

Résumé

During the last three decades a mathematical theory of dynamical systems, chaos, and bifurcations has been actively developed and used for the consideration of various fundamental problems and applications. The attempts of using this theory for the study of economic, social, and historical processes were made by the well-known specialists in dynamics of natural sciences and specialists in various social sciences. Such concepts as controlled chaos, dynamical history, and synergetics emerged and have been spread widely. The main difficulty in the mathematical modeling of social historical processes is to construct a suitable mathematical model. Therefore, in recent years there has arisen the trend to give up the idea of constructing complete mathematical models and to use instead basic concepts and common approaches of mathematical theory of dynamical systems for socio-economic, historical or political process. In this paper an approach to modeling the Tunisian social system in the period of 2011 to 2014 is considered and revolution, bifurcation, and controlled stabilization are discussed. Using statistical analysis of socio-economic indicators of Tunisia there two bifurcation parameters are selected which have influenced the stability of the socio-economic system of Tunisia. Based on this analysis recommendations for the socio-economic systems of Tunisia and Russia are offered. Refs 49. Table 1.

Détail

Keywords: modeling, dynamical systems, mathematical models of socio-economic systems, the revolution in Tunisia, “Arab Spring”.
Mots-clés : chaos, bifurcation

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