Analysis of the ionospheric parameter dynamics during disturbed periods based on Aurora system results

N. V. Fetisova   ; O. V. Mandrikova

Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiziko-matematičeskie nauki, Tome 49 (2024) no. 4, pp. 157-170

Résumé

The paper describes an ionospheric component of “Aurora” interactive system. The “Aurora” system implements new methods of data analysis based on the combination of modern means of digital signal processing with classical methods of data analysis. The paper presents the results of the ionospheric component based on a generalized multicomponent model of ionospheric parameters developed by the authors. The model and numerical algorithms based on it make it possible to study the ionospheric parameter dynamics during disturbed periods (to detect anomalous periods and estimate their parameters) in detail. The ionospheric component of “Aurora” system performs processing and analysis of the foF2 ionospheric critical frequency parameters recorded at Paratunka station (Kamchatka Territory) and forms a conclusion on the state of the ionosphere above Kamchatka. This development was carried out by a team of the system analysis laboratory of IKIR FEB RAS. The paper presents numerical algorithms implemented in the system and system results during increased geomagnetic activity (as an example of a weak magnetic storm from June 15, 2024) and seismic processes in Kamchatka (as an example of the November 2, 2018 earthquake). During the periods of the considered events, anomalous changes were detected in the ionosphere, which were accompanied with both the increase and decrease of the electron concentration.

Détail

Keywords: ionospheric disturbances, wavelet transform, autoregressive models.

Bibliographie

[1] Afraimovich E. L., Perevalova N. P., GPS-monitoring verkhnei atmosfery Zemli, GU NU RVKh VSNTs SO RAMN, Irkutsk, 2006, 480 pp.

[2] Nakamura M., Maruyama T., Shidama Y., “Using a neural network to make operational forecasts of ionospheric variations and storms at Kokubunji, Japan”, J. Natl. Inst. Inf. Commun. Technol., 56 (2009), 391–406

[3] Tsagouri I., “Space weather effects on the Earth’s Upper Atmosphere: short report on ionospheric storm effects at middle latitudes”, Atmosphere, 13:2 (2022), 346 DOI: 10.3390/atmos13020346 | DOI

[4] Danilov A. D., “Detailed analysis of the behavior of the F2-layer critical frequency prior to geomagnetic storms”, Adv. Space Res., 70:4 (2022), 1078–1088 DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2022.05.025 | DOI

[5] Danilov A. D., “Ionospheric F-region response to geomagnetic disturbances”, Adv. Space Res., 52:3 (2013), 343–366 | DOI

[6] Pulinets S. A., Legen’ka A. D., Hegai V. V., Kim V. P., Korsunova L. P, “Ionosphere disturbances preceding earthquakes according to the data of ground based station of vertical ionospheric sounding Wakkanai”, Geomagnetism and Aeronomy, 58:5 (2018), 686–692 | DOI

[7] Rodkin M. V., Liperovskaya E. V., “On the difference in physical mechanisms of earthquakes at different depths and their ionospheric response”, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 59 (2023), 377–390 DOI: 10.1134/s1069351323030114 | DOI

[8] Priyadarshi S., “A review of ionospheric scintillation models”, Surveys in Geophysics, 36:2 (2015), 295–324 DOI: 10.1007/s10712-015-9319-1 | DOI

[9] Joshua B. W., Adeniyi J. O., Amory-Mazaudier C., Adebiyi S. J, “On the Pre-Magnetic Storm Signatures in NmF2 in Some Equatorial, Low and Mid-Latitude Stations”, J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 126 (2021), e2021JA029459 DOI: 10.1029/2021JA029459 | DOI

[10] Kumar V. V., Parkinson M. L., “A global scale picture of ionospheric peak electron density changes during geomagnetic storms”, Space Weather, 15 (2017), 637–652 DOI: 10.1002/2016SW001573 | DOI

[11] Mansilla G. A., Zossi M. M., “Longitudinal variation of the ionospheric response to the 26 August 2018 geomagnetic storm at equatorial/low latitudes”, Pure Appl. Geophys, 177 (2020), 5833–5844 DOI: 10.1007/s00024-020-02601-1 | DOI

[12] Fetisova N. V, “Algoritm vydeleniya intensivnykh anomalnykh izmenenii vo vremennom khode parametrov ionosfery”, Kompyuternaya optika, 43:6 (2019), 1064–1071 DOI: 10.18287/2412-6179-2019-43-6-1064-1071

[13] Mandrikova O., Fetisova N., Polozov Yu., “Method of ionospheric parameter analysis in the problems of real-time data processing”, J. Phys. Conference Series by IOP Publishing, 1096 (2018), 012091 DOI: 10.1088/1742-6596/1096/1/012091 | DOI

[14] Bilitza D., Pezzopane M., Truhlik V., Altadill D., Reinisch B. W., Pignalberi A., “The International Reference Ionosphere model: A review and description of an ionospheric benchmark”, Reviews of Geophysics, 60:4 (2022), e2022RG000792 DOI: 10.1029/2022RG000792 | DOI

[15] Solomentsev D. V., Titov A. A., Khattatov B. V., “Three-dimensional assimilation model of the ionosphere for the European region”, Geomagn. Aeron., 53:1 (2013), 73–84 DOI: 10.1134/S0016793212060114 | DOI

[16] Huba J. D., Liu H. L., “Global modeling of equatorial spread F with SAMI3/WACCM-X”, Geophysical Research Letters, 47:14 (2020), e2020GL088258 DOI: 10.1029/2020GL088258 | DOI

[17] Mandrikova O, Fetisova N, Polozov Y., “Hybrid Model for Time Series of Complex Structure with ARIMA Components”, Mathematics, 9:10 (2021), 1122 DOI: 10.3390/math9101122 | DOI | MR

[18] Mandrikova O., Fetisova N., “Modeling and analysis of ionospheric parameters based on multicomponent model”, J. Atmos. Solar-Terr. Phys., 208 (2020), 105399 DOI: 10.1016/j.jastp.2020.105399 | DOI

[19] Box G., Jenkins G., Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Holden Day, San Francisco, 1970, 537 pp. | MR

[20] Mallat S., A Wavelet Tour of Signal Processing: 3rd ed., Academic Press, London, 1999, 637 pp. | MR

[21] Levin B. R., Teoreticheskie osnovy statisticheskoi radiotekhniki, Sovetskoe radio, Moskva, 1969, 752 pp. | MR

[22] Mandrikova O., Fetisova N., “Analysis of ionospheric parameters during solar events and magnetic storms”, Solar-Terrestrial Relations and Physics of Earthquake Precursors. STRPEP 2023. Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Science, 2023, 3–13 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-50248-4_1