Geodesic
A methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and~ionospheric predictive signs
Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiziko-matematičeskie nauki, Tome 30 (2020) no. 1, pp. 59-78

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In this paper, an attempt is made to combine seismological and ionospheric predictive signs formed on the eve of earthquakes in order to develop a methodology for assessing the region and the time period of waiting for strong Kamchatka earthquakes with energy class Ks \ge 13.5 (M\ge 6.0). The seismological parameter determined on the basis of the probabilistic model of the seismicity of Kamchatka region and allowing to estimate the region and the probability of occurrence of a strong earthquake in it is proposed as a medium-term precursor. The complex of ionospheric disturbances is considered as a shortterm precursor with a waiting period of up to 5 days for earthquakes. The estimation of their prognostic efficiency for the considered precursors is carried out by methods A. A. Gusev and G. M. Molchan, and their joint analysis was performed on the eve of earthquakes with Ks\ge 13.5 (M\ge 6.0), that occurred in the period 20092018.
Keywords: ionosphere, lithosphere, earthquake, a precursor of earthquakes.
Mots-clés : vertical radiosonde 
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     author = {V. V. Bogdanov and A. V. Pavlov},
     title = {A methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and~ionospheric predictive signs},
     journal = {Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiziko-matemati\v{c}eskie nauki},
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     number = {1},
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     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VKAM_2020_30_1_a4/}
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V. V. Bogdanov; A. V. Pavlov. A methodology to estimate a region and waiting period for strong kamchatka earthquakes based on seismic and~ionospheric predictive signs. Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiziko-matematičeskie nauki, Tome 30 (2020) no. 1, pp. 59-78. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/VKAM_2020_30_1_a4/