Model of some predictive anomalies in the field of subsoil radon of earthquakes with $M \geq 5.5$ in Kamchatka peninsula

E. O. Makarov ; P. P. Firstov

Vestnik KRAUNC. Fiziko-matematičeskie nauki, no. 4 (2018), pp. 133-147

Résumé

At the Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky geodynamic test site, for almost 20 years, a network of monitoring stations for subsoil radon has been operating. During the work, a number of anomalies were registered, which preceded earthquakes with a magnitude $M > 5$, which by morphological features are divided into two types (A, B). The paper analyzed in detail the mechanism of occurrence of type B anomalies on the basis of a mathematical model for the propagation of radon in a stream of groundwater with complete transverse mixing. An attempt was made to link some features of the appearance of predictive anomalies of type B with the areas of occurrence of earthquakes.

Détail

Mots-clés : radon
Keywords: mathematical modeling, radon anomaly, earthquake pridiction, Kamchatka, radon monitoring, geothermal reservoir, deformation.

Bibliographie

[1] Grammakov A. G., Nikonov A. I., Tarfeev G. P., Radiometricheskie metody poiskov i razvedki uranovyh rud, Gosgeoltekhizdat, M., 1957, 610 pp.

[2] Novikov G. F., Kapkov YU. N., Radioaktivnye metody razvedki, Nedra, L., 1965, 759 pp.

[3] Rudakov V. P., Dinamika polej podpochvennogo radona sejsmoaktivnyh regionov SNG, Avtoref. diss. ... dokt. fiz.-mat. nauk, M., 1992, 37 pp. | Zbl

[4] Bulashevich YU. P. i dr., “Izmenenie koncentracii radona kak predvestnik gornyh udarov v glubokih shahtah”, Gornyj zhurnal, 1996, no. 6, 19–22

[5] Utkin V. I., YUrkov A. K., “Radon i problema tektonicheskih zemletryasenij”, Vulkanologiya i sejsmologiya, 1997, no. 4, 82–94

[6] Firstov P. P., “Monitoring ob"emnoj aktivnosti podpochvennogo radona (222Rn) na Paratunskoj geotermal'noj sisteme v 1997–1998 gg. s cel'yu poiska predvestnikov sil'nyh zemletryasenij Kamchatki”, Vulkanologiya i sejsmologiya, 1999, no. 6, 22–31

[7] Firstov P. P., Rudakov V. P., “Rezul'taty registracii podpochvennogo radona v 1997-2000 gg. na Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskom geodinamicheskom poligone”, Vulkanologiya i sejsmologiya, 2003, no. 1, 26–41

[8] YAkovleva V. S., Karataev V. D., “Plotnost' potoka radona s poverhnosti zemli kak vozmozhnyj indikator izmenenij napryazhenno-deformirovannogo sostoyaniya geologicheskoj sredy”, Vulkanologiya i sejsmologiya, 2007, no. 1, 74–77

[9] Lyashchuk A. I., Pavlovich V. N., Russov V. D., “Monitoring koncentracii radona kak predvestnik zemletryasenij v rajone gor Vrancha”, Geofizicheskij zhurnal, 30:2 (2008), 63–74

[10] Firstov P. P., Makarov E. O., Akbashev R. R., “Monitoring koncentracii pochvennyh gazov na Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskom geodinamicheskom poligone v svyazi s prognozom sil'nyh zemletryasenij”, Sejsmicheskie pribory, 51:1 (2015), 60-80

[11] Swolfs H. S., “Stress-monitoring system for earthquake prediction”, Report TR, Terra-Tek, Salt Lake City, 1976, 76–55

[12] Gudzenko V. V., Dubinchuk V. T., Izotopy radiya i radon v prirodnyh vodah, Nauka, M., 1987, 45 pp.

[13] Bondarenko V. M., Ivanova T. M., “Perenos radona v gornom massive: modeli i ehksperimental'nye dannye”, Geologiya i razvedka, 1999, no. 4, 96–107

[14] Parovik R. I., Matematicheskoe modelirovaniya neklassicheskoj teorii ehmanacionnogo metoda, KamGU im. V. Beringa, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskij, 2014, 80 pp.

[15] Nafikova A. R. i dr., “Sravnitel'noe sopostavlenie dannyh vychislitel'nogo i naturnogo ehksperimentov po issledovaniyu processov perenosa radona v kusochno-odnorodnyh gorizontal'no-sloistyh sredah”, ANRI, 2016, no. 4(87), 67–72

[16] Varhegyi A., Baranyi I., Somogyi G. A., “Model for the vertical subsurface radon transport in “geogas” microbubbles”, Geophys. Transactions, 32:3 (1986), 235–253

[17] Dubinchuk V. T., “Radon as a precursor of earthquakes”, Isotopic geochemical precursors of earthquakes and volcanic eruption, Proceedings of an Advisory Group Meeting held in Vienna, 9-12 September 1991, Vienna, 1991, 6–22

[18] Etiope G., Martinelli G., “Migration of carrier and trace gases in the geosphere: an overview”, Phys.Earth Planet. Inter., 129 (2002), 185–204 | DOI

[19] Yakovleva V. S., Parovik R. I., “Solution of diffusion-advection equation of radon transport in many-layered geological media”, Nukleonika, 55:4 (2010), 601-606 | MR

[20] Gorbushina L. V., Tyminskij V. G., Spiridonov A. I., “K voprosu o mekhanizme obrazovaniya radiogidrogeologicheskih anomalij v sejsmoaktivnom rajone i ih znachenie pri prognozirovanii zemletryasenij”, Sovetskaya geologiya, 1972, no. 1, 153–156

[21] Gracinskij V. G., Gorbushina L. V., Tyminskij V. G., “O vydelenii radioaktivnyh gazov iz obrazcov gornyh porod pod dejstviem ul'trazvuka”, Fizika Zemli, 1967, no. 10, 91–94

[22] King C.Y., “Gas-geochemical approaches to earthquake prediction”, Isotopic geochemical precursors of earthquakes and volcanic eruption, Proceedings of an Advisory Group Meeting held in Vienna, 9-12 September 1991, Vienna, 1991, 22-36

[23] Kozlova I. A., YUrkov A. K., “Otrazhenie posledovatel'nyh sejsmicheskih sobytij v pole ob"emnoj aktivnosti radona”, Ural'skij geofizicheskij vestnik, 2016, no. 1, 35-39 | MR

[24] Barsukov V. L. i dr., “Znachenie gidrogeohimicheskih metodov dlya kratkosrochnogo prognoza zemletryasenij”, Gidrogeohimicheskie predvestniki zemletryasenij, Nauka, M., 1985, 3-16

[25] Ponamarev A. S., “Frakcionirovanie v gidroterme kak potencial'naya vozmozhnost' formirovaniya predvestnikov zemletryasenij”, Geohimiya, 1989, no. 5, 714-724

[26] Makarov E.O., Otklik v dinamike podpochvennogo radona na podgotovku sil'nyh zemletryasenij Kamchatki i severo-zapadnoj okrainy Tihogo okeana, avtoref. dis. na soiskanie stepeni kand. fiz.-mat. nauk, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatatskij, 2017, 22 pp.

[27] Makarov E. O., Firstov P. P., Voloshin V. N., “Apparaturnyj kompleks dlya registracii koncentracii podpochvennyh gazov s cel'yu poiska predvestnikovyh anomalij sil'nyh zemletryasenij YUzhnoj Kamchatki”, Cejsmicheskie pribory, 48:1 (2012), 5-14

[28] Firstov P. P., Makarov E. O., “Reakciya podpochvennogo i rastvorennogo v podzemnyh vodah radona na izmenenie napryazhenno-deformirovannogo sostoyaniya zemnoj kory”, Sejsmicheskie pribory, 51:4 (2015), 58-80

[29] Firstov P. P. i dr., “Poisk predvestnikovyh anomalij sil'nyh zemletryasenij po dannym monitoringa podpochvennyh gazov na Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskom geodinamicheskom poligone”, Geosistemy perekhodnyh zon, 2:1 (2018), 16–32

[30] Firstov P. P. i dr., “Osobennosti odnogo iz tipov predvestnikovyh anomalij zemletryasenij v podpochvennom radone na punkte Paratunka (Kamchatka)”, ANRI, 2016, no. 4(87), 55–62

[31] Paskar' S. YU., Parovik R.,I., “Matematicheskoe modelirovanie perenosa radona v vlagonasyshchennom grunte”, Mezhdunarodnyj studencheskij nauchnyj vestnik, 2015, no. 6, 1-8

[32] Novikov G.F., Radiometricheskaya razvedka, Nauka, L., 1989, 407 pp.

[33] Rudakov V.P., EHmanacionnyj monitoring geosred i processov, Nauchnyj mir, M., 2009, 175 pp.

[34] Ogil'vi A.N., “O kaptazhe radioaktivnyh vod i o kolebaniyah ih radioaktivnosti v zavisimosti ot debita”, Izd. Bal'neologich. in-ta KMV, 6 (1928), 85-93

[35] Regel' V. R., Slucker A. I., Tomashevskij EH. E., Kineticheskaya priroda prochnosti tverdyh tel, Nauka, M., 1976, 560 pp.

[36] Kopylova G. N., Boldina S. V., “Anomal'nye izmeneniya himicheskogo sostava podzemnyh vod v svyazi s Kamchatskim zemletryaseniem 02.03.1992 g.($M_w=6.9$)”, Geofizicheskie issledovaniya, 13:1 (2012), 39-49 | MR

[37] Wang R. et al., “Modeling of hydrogeochemical anomalies induced by distant earthquakes”, Geophys. J. Int., 157 (2004), 717-726 | DOI

[38] Demezhko D. YU. i dr., “O prirode temperaturnyh variacij v skvazhine kun-1 (o. Kunashir)”, Geologiya i geofizika, 53:3 (2012), 406–414, 170–176 pp.

[39] Firstov P. P., “Izmenenie ob"emnoj aktivnosti radona (222Rn) v podpochvennom gaze pered Kronockim zemletryaseniem 5 dekabrya 1997 g. s $M=7.7$ v rajone Paratunskogo mestorozhdeniya gidrotermal'nyh vod (Kamchatka)”, Kronockoe zemletryasenie na Kamchatke 5 dekabrya 1997 g., Izd-vo KGARF, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatatskij, 1998

[40] Gusev A.A. i dr., “Sil'noe Kronockoe zemletryasenie 5 dekabrya 1997 goda: osnovnye dannye, sejsmichnost' ochagovoj zony, mekhanizm ochaga, makrosejsmicheskij ehffekt”, Kronockoe zemletryasenie na Kamchatke 5 dekabrya 1997 g., Izd-vo KGARF, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatatskij, 1998, 32–54 pp.

[41] Kiryukhin A. V. et al., “Thermal-permeability structure and recharge conditions of the low temperature Paratunsky geothermal reservoirs, Kamchatka, Russia”, Geothermics, 70 (2017), 47–61 | DOI

[42] Firstov P. P., Makarov E .O., Gluhova I. P., “Anomalii v dinamike podpochvennyh gazov na Petropavlovsk-Kamchatskom geodinamicheskom poligone vo vremennoj okrestnosti glubokogo ZHupanovskogo zemletryaseniya 30.01.2016 g., M = 7.2”, Vulkanologiya i sejsmologiya, 2018, no. 5