Applying the mathematical apparatus of fluid and gas dynamics for financial market dynamics modeling

A. R. Musin ; A. S. Sorokin

Učënye zapiski Kazanskogo universiteta. Seriâ Fiziko-matematičeskie nauki, Uchenye Zapiski Kazanskogo Universiteta. Seriya Fiziko-Matematicheskie Nauki, Tome 160 (2018) no. 4, pp. 709-717

Résumé

This paper is devoted to the study of possibilities for using the mathematical apparatus of natural science research, in particular the parabolic type differential equations and stochastic modeling methods in order to explain the behavioral features of financial market. An econometric model has been presented that explains the market prices dynamics based on Burger's differential equation, which is used for modeling liquids and gas motion. The model's structure allows to account for traditional dynamic features of financial market that is, in particular, related to traders behavioral patterns, as well as such price effects associated with the presence of local linear trend. Model testing has been performed on minute market data of pound sterling to US dollar exchange rate for the whole 2017 year and confirmed the possibility of using it for predicting the considered currency pair values with the accuracy of 57.2% measured by the percentage of correct forecast direction, while the value of the corresponding indicator for a random walk model, additionally reviewed for comparison purposes, was only 49.8%.

Détail

Keywords: financial market, forecasting, econometric models, Kalman filter.

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