Geodesic
Mathematical model for cyclic processes forecasting
Matematičeskoe modelirovanie, Tome 16 (2004) no. 4, pp. 47-54

Voir la notice de l'article provenant de la source Math-Net.Ru

Mathematical model describes time series, including trend and cycles with changing amplitude and random period. Parameters estimation performs by Least Squares Method using statistical data between the first and last maximums. Author investigates the forecasts errors. This model was used for disease forecasting. 
@article{MM_2004_16_4_a5,
     author = {A. I. Bogdanov},
     title = {Mathematical model for cyclic processes forecasting},
     journal = {Matemati\v{c}eskoe modelirovanie},
     pages = {47--54},
     publisher = {mathdoc},
     volume = {16},
     number = {4},
     year = {2004},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MM_2004_16_4_a5/}
}
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A. I. Bogdanov. Mathematical model for cyclic processes forecasting. Matematičeskoe modelirovanie, Tome 16 (2004) no. 4, pp. 47-54. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MM_2004_16_4_a5/