Geodesic
Modelling influence of outflow into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay on probability density of the Caspian Sea level fluctuations
Matematičeskoe modelirovanie i čislennye metody, no. 11 (2016), pp. 79-92
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The paper considers long-term fluctuations of the Caspian Sea level as a nonlinear system output with positive and negative feedbacks. The Caspian Sea model with due consideration of an outflow into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay is designed. Density distribution of the sea level is obtained as a solution to the corresponding Fokker — Planck — Kolmogorov equation. The bimodal probability density of the sea level distribution, which meets the endorheic Caspian Sea (if you cut off the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay), is shown to turn into the single-mode probability density in case of simultaneous influence of evaporation and seawater outflow into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay on the sea level.
Keywords: The caspian sea level, probability density distribution, nonlinear hydrological system, bimodality.
Mots-clés : fokker — planck — kolmogorov equation 
@article{MMCM_2016_11_a4,
     author = {A. V. Frolov},
     title = {Modelling influence of outflow into the {Kara-Bogaz-Gol} {Bay} on probability density of the {Caspian} {Sea} level fluctuations},
     journal = {Matemati\v{c}eskoe modelirovanie i \v{c}islennye metody},
     pages = {79--92},
     year = {2016},
     number = {11},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MMCM_2016_11_a4/}
}
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A. V. Frolov. Modelling influence of outflow into the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay on probability density of the Caspian Sea level fluctuations. Matematičeskoe modelirovanie i čislennye metody, no. 11 (2016), pp. 79-92. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/MMCM_2016_11_a4/