Geodesic
Universality of algorithms predicting strong events in complex systems
Informacionnye tehnologii i vyčislitelnye sistemy, no. 1 (2011), pp. 24-34.

Voir la notice de l'article provenant de la source Math-Net.Ru

In spite of hypothesis claiming non-predictability of models with self-organized criticality (SOC), this paper for the first time gives evidence that strong events in a SOC-model of earthquake occurrence (of the Manna type) are predictable with certain efficiency. Some quiescence underlies the prediction. The error diagram exhibits prediction efficiency.
Keywords: self-organized criticality, prediction, error diagram. 
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A. B. Shapoval; M. G. Shnirman. Universality of algorithms predicting strong events in complex systems. Informacionnye tehnologii i vyčislitelnye sistemy, no. 1 (2011), pp. 24-34. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/ITVS_2011_1_a3/