Assessment of the protection level of continuous production based on the Markov life cycle model

D. Yu. Petrov

Izvestiya of Saratov University. Mathematics. Mechanics. Informatics, Tome 22 (2022) no. 3, pp. 393-400

Résumé

The article discusses the current level of development of automation technologies for continuous production, taking into account the compliance with the requirements of the fourth industrial revolution Industry 4.0. A new classification of the levels of industrial safety of production processes is proposed, taking into account the stages of the plan for the localization and elimination of emergency situations. The states of the life cycle of continuous production are determined, taking into account the proposed classification. A mathematical model of the states of the life cycle of continuous production has been developed and their interrelations have been determined. Based on the analysis of the statistical data on the states of the life cycle of flat glass production, the probabilities of transitions between the states of the production life cycle are determined. As a result of the statistical analysis of the probabilities of state transitions for the production of sheet glass, it became possible to use the apparatus of Markov processes. The use of the apparatus of Markov processes made it possible to assess the probabilities of finding continuous production in each state of the life cycle. The MathCAD software package computed the probabilities for each state of the life cycle of sheet glass production. To determine the probabilities of life cycle states in the MathCAD software package, simulation modeling has been performed. The comparison of the results of calculating the probabilities of the states of the life cycle of production, obtained by the method of simulation and analytical calculation, has been carried out. The values of the calculated probabilities of the state of the life cycle of continuous production make it possible to use the "Arbiter" software package for the analysis of durability, survivability, safety, technical risk, expected damage and production efficiency.