Geodesic
Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability
Doklady Rossijskoj akademii nauk. Matematika, informatika, processy upravleniâ, Tome 494 (2020), pp. 80-85 Cet article a éte moissonné depuis la source Math-Net.Ru

Voir la notice de l'article

By using the US economy as an example, the paper shows how the COVID-19 pandemic has changed its short-term dynamics, causing a deep crisis recession in 2020 rather than the expected short-term and shallow recession in 2022 caused by the inflation of the financial bubble during the credit expansion that followed the financial and economic crisis of 2008–2009. To predict the latter scenario, which is natural for the US economy, the authors first developed a mathematical model based on Hyman Minsky’s theory of financial instability, which can serve to manage the processes of credit expansion and contraction in an unstable economy.
Keywords: economic dynamics, speculative growth lending, Minsky’s theory of financial instability, management of credit expansion and contraction, mathematical model for forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in an unstable economy. 
@article{DANMA_2020_494_a18,
     author = {A. A. Akaev and V. A. Sadovnichii},
     title = {Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the {US} economy using a mathematical model of {Hyman} {Minsky's} theory of financial instability},
     journal = {Doklady Rossijskoj akademii nauk. Matematika, informatika, processy upravleni\^a},
     pages = {80--85},
     year = {2020},
     volume = {494},
     language = {ru},
     url = {http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/DANMA_2020_494_a18/}
}
TY  - JOUR
AU  - A. A. Akaev
AU  - V. A. Sadovnichii
TI  - Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability
JO  - Doklady Rossijskoj akademii nauk. Matematika, informatika, processy upravleniâ
PY  - 2020
SP  - 80
EP  - 85
VL  - 494
UR  - http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/DANMA_2020_494_a18/
LA  - ru
ID  - DANMA_2020_494_a18
ER  - 
%0 Journal Article
%A A. A. Akaev
%A V. A. Sadovnichii
%T Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability
%J Doklady Rossijskoj akademii nauk. Matematika, informatika, processy upravleniâ
%D 2020
%P 80-85
%V 494
%U http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/DANMA_2020_494_a18/
%G ru
%F DANMA_2020_494_a18
A. A. Akaev; V. A. Sadovnichii. Forecasting a cyclical downturn (recession) in the US economy using a mathematical model of Hyman Minsky's theory of financial instability. Doklady Rossijskoj akademii nauk. Matematika, informatika, processy upravleniâ, Tome 494 (2020), pp. 80-85. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/item/DANMA_2020_494_a18/

[1] MVF, iyul 2019 g.: Perspektivy razvitiya mirovoi ekonomiki, 23 iyulya 2019 g. www.elibrary.imf.org

[2] Minski Kh., Stabiliziruya nestabilnuyu ekonomiku, Izd-vo In-ta Gaidara, M.–SPb, 2017, 624 pp.

[3] Keins Dzh.M., Obschaya teoriya zanyatosti, protsenta i deneg, Gelios ARV, M., 2012, 352 pp.

[4] Kuper Dzh., Priroda finansovykh krizisov, BestBusinessBooks, SPb, 2010, 216 pp.

[5] Akaev A.A., Sadovnichii V.A., “Zamknutaya dinamicheskaya model dlya opisaniya i rascheta dlinnoi volny ekonomicheskogo razvitiya Kondrateva”, Vestnik RAN, 86:10 (2016), 883–896 | DOI

[6] http://data.worldbank.org/

[7] Akaev A.A., Sarygulov A.I., Sokolov V.N., “Matematicheskaya model ekonomicheskoi dinamiki v usloviyakh vysokoi inflyatsii i nestabilnogo razvitiya”, DAN, 465:6 (2015), 646–649