Impact of urban travel rates on epidemic spread and basic reproduction number

Ma Ke ; Elena Gubar

Contributions to game theory and management, Tome 17 (2024), pp. 59-73

Résumé

This research incorporates urban transit movement into a Susceptiable -Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) framework to assess how travel rates influence the transmission of disease among three interconnected urban areas. This model allows us to simulate individual movements across multiple cities and their role in disease transmission, capturing the dynamics of infectious disease spread among three cities. By incorporating symmetric travel rates and uniform exposure assumptions, the model provides insight into how human mobility influences the spread of epidemics and the basic reproduction number ($R_0$). Our analysis demonstrates that travel rates influence the cross-regional transmission dynamics. Our findings provide important guidance for public health policy, suggesting that the role of travel in disease spread should be addressed, with enhanced international cooperation and coordination for effective outbreak control. These findings underscore the importance of implementing timely and stringent travel restrictions as part of public health measures, especially in the early stages of an epidemic.

Détail

Keywords: sEIR model, travel rate, basic reproduction number, travel restrictions.

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