Geodesic
Stability and contagion measures for spatial extreme value analyzes
Kybernetika, Tome 50 (2014) no. 6, pp. 914-928
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As part of global climate change an accelerated hydrologic cycle (including an increase in heavy precipitation) is anticipated (Trenberth [20, 21]). So, it is of great importance to be able to quantify high-impact hydrologic relationships, for example, the impact that an extreme precipitation (or temperature) in a location has on a surrounding region. Building on the Multivariate Extreme Value Theory we propose a contagion index and a stability index. The contagion index makes it possible to quantify the effect that an exceedance above a high threshold can have on a region. The stability index reflects the expected number of crossings of a high threshold in a region associated to a specific location $i$, given the occurrence of at least one crossing at that location. We will find some relations with well-known extremal dependence measures found in the literature, which will provide immediate estimators. For these estimators an application to the annual maxima precipitation in Portuguese regions is presented.
As part of global climate change an accelerated hydrologic cycle (including an increase in heavy precipitation) is anticipated (Trenberth [20, 21]). So, it is of great importance to be able to quantify high-impact hydrologic relationships, for example, the impact that an extreme precipitation (or temperature) in a location has on a surrounding region. Building on the Multivariate Extreme Value Theory we propose a contagion index and a stability index. The contagion index makes it possible to quantify the effect that an exceedance above a high threshold can have on a region. The stability index reflects the expected number of crossings of a high threshold in a region associated to a specific location $i$, given the occurrence of at least one crossing at that location. We will find some relations with well-known extremal dependence measures found in the literature, which will provide immediate estimators. For these estimators an application to the annual maxima precipitation in Portuguese regions is presented.
DOI : 10.14736/kyb-2014-6-0914
Classification : 60G70, 86A05, 86A10
Keywords: spatial extremes; max-stable processes; extremal dependence 
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Fonseca, Cecília; Ferreira, Helena; Pereira, Luísa; Martins, Ana Paula. Stability and contagion measures for spatial extreme value analyzes. Kybernetika, Tome 50 (2014) no. 6, pp. 914-928. doi: 10.14736/kyb-2014-6-0914

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