Geodesic
Population Dynamics of Grayling: Modelling Temperature and Discharge Effects
S. Charles1 ; J.-P. Mallet2 ; H. Persat3
1 Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558 CNRS University Lyon 1, 69622, Villeurbanne, France
2 ASCONIT Consultants, Espace Scientifique Tony Garnier, 69366 Lyon, France
3 Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Fluviaux, UMR 5023, CNRS University Lyon 1, 69622, Villeurbanne, France
Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 1 (2006) no. 1, pp. 31-48.

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We propose a matrix population modelling approach in order to describe the dynamics of a grayling (Thymallus thymallus, L. 1758) population living in the Ain river (France). We built a Leslie like model, which integrates the climate changes in terms of temperature and discharge. First, we show how temperature and discharge can be related to life history traits like survival and reproduction. Second, we show how to use the population model to precisely examine the life cycle of grayling : estimated numbers of individuals at the beginning of the reproduction season, estimated number of individuals in summer, comparison between observed and simulated numbers of individuals. Finally, we discuss our results in the framework of the assessment of impact of possible climate changes on grayling populations.
DOI : 10.1051/mmnp:2006002

S. Charles 1 ; J.-P. Mallet 2 ; H. Persat 3

1 Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive, UMR 5558 CNRS University Lyon 1, 69622, Villeurbanne, France
2 ASCONIT Consultants, Espace Scientifique Tony Garnier, 69366 Lyon, France
3 Ecologie des Hydrosystèmes Fluviaux, UMR 5023, CNRS University Lyon 1, 69622, Villeurbanne, France 
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     title = {Population {Dynamics} of {Grayling:} {Modelling} {Temperature} and {Discharge} {Effects}},
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S. Charles; J.-P. Mallet; H. Persat. Population Dynamics of Grayling: Modelling Temperature and Discharge Effects. Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 1 (2006) no. 1, pp. 31-48. doi : 10.1051/mmnp:2006002. http://geodesic.mathdoc.fr/articles/10.1051/mmnp:2006002/

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