Fair insurance premium rate in connected SEIR model under epidemic outbreak

Alexey A. Chernov¹ ; Aleksandr A. Shemendyuk² ; Mark Y. Kelbert¹

¹ National Research University Higher School of Economics, Laboratory of Stochastic Analysis and its Applications, Moscow, Russia.
² University of Lausanne, Department of Actuarial Science, Lausanne, Switzerland.

Mathematical modelling of natural phenomena, Tome 16 (2021), article no. 34

Résumé

In this paper, we aim to determine an optimal insurance premium rate for health-care in deterministic and stochastic SEIR models. The studied models consider two standard SEIR centres characterised by migration fluxes and vaccination of population. The premium is calculated using the basic equivalence principle. Even in this simple set-up, there are non-intuitive results that illustrate how the premium depends on migration rates, the severity of a disease and the initial distribution of healthy and infected individuals through the centres. We investigate how the vaccination program affects the insurance costs by comparing the savings in benefits with the expenses for vaccination. We compare the results of deterministic and stochastic models.

Détail

DOI : 10.1051/mmnp/2021028

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